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On The Brink Of A Center East Warfare

liquid chlorine storage tankAs Iran continues to place itself as probably the most highly effective nation within the Center East, a brand new Shiite dominance is rising in a region historically controlled by Sunni Muslims. With the deposing of Saddam Hussein’s Sunni regime in Iraq, a Shiite majority has begun to consolidate power within a authorities anticipated to have close ties to the ruling clerics in neighboring Iran.

Throw in the rising reputation and energy of Iranian-sponsored Hezbollah in Lebanon and close by Sunni nations are growing more and more uneasy about what is occurring to the stability of power within the area. As that uneasiness grows, so do the prospects for an all-out Shiite-Sunni conflict in the Center East.

The private intelligence company Strategic Forecasting, Inc. not too long ago quoted Nawaf Obaid, managing director of the Saudi National Security Evaluation Challenge and Saudi prime strategic adviser as saying that the Kingdom would use cash, oil, and assist for Sunni militants to thwart Iranian efforts to dominate Iraq within the wake of a U.S. navy withdrawal.

Writing within the Washington Publish, Obaid did concede that such overt assist of minority Sunnis in Iraq against a Shiite majority may result in a wider regional conflict. Nonetheless, he wrote, “So be it: The consequences of inaction are far worse.” Now, officially the Saudi government has distanced itself from Obaid’s comments, and has cancelled its contract with him. However studies from the region, including comments within the Iraq Research Group’s findings, more and more suggest that such support for Iraq’s Sunnis is actually happening.

This is the new reality within the Middle East. Iran noticed a possibility that it couldn’t pass up when the United States turned bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan. The radical clerics and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad seized the second to assert Iranian power and influence in an effort to place Iran as the key participant within the area.

The Iranian technique has three components, which I’ve written about before: pursuing nuclear know-how without regard to any demands made by the United Nations, utilizing Hezbollah to confront Israel whereas gaining energy and influence in Lebanon, and sponsoring militias and loss of life squads in Iraq to consolidate Shiite power and keep the United States occupied in an increasingly violent insurgency.

Thus far, the technique has labored beautifully. Iran’s defiance of the United Nations Security Council has been met with diplomatic delays by appeasement-minded France and with the blocking of effective sanctions by Russia, and to a point, China. Hezbollah fought Israel to a standstill on the battlefield and has pushed the Lebanese government dangerously close to collapse, all the whereas growing the influence of its Iranian sponsors. And sectarian violence in Iraq is rapidly spinning out of management as Sunnis are ever so slowly squeezed out of Iraq’s future.

At this point, the Iranians are doing fairly well. Ahmadinejad is confident sufficient in his place to write down ridiculous letters to President Bush and the American individuals, and he is assured sufficient to mock the U.N. Security Council with out fear chlorine factory of reprisal. He sees his master plan coming together, and so do his neighbors. And that’s the place the issue lies.

The Sunni governments in Saudi Arabia and Jordan are nervous. They have lost the buffer of Saddam Hussein’s Iraq and are actually faced with rising Shiite power in the region. Saudi Arabia has now primarily admitted as a lot. The question is whether the nervousness over Shiite power will translate into hostile motion. The assertion by Obaid would seem to point that we’re closer to that time than ever before. And if the Sunnis see their longtime dominance of the Middle East slipping away, the sectarian violence in Iraq could simply spread to neighboring nations, leading to a full-blown conflict in the Center East.

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