The common Brent crude oil price for 2016 is expected to be around $forty per barrel, U.S. Vitality Data Administration has forecasted in its Brief-Time period Vitality Outlook launched on January 12.
Additionally, this version of the Brief-Term Power Outlook is the first to include forecasts for 2017, and in keeping with EIA, the Brent crude price is predicted to see some recovery in 2017, with $50 a barrel forecasted by EIA then.
North Sea Brent crude oil prices averaged $38/barrel (b) in December, a $6/b lower from November, and the lowest month-to-month average price since June 2004. Brent crude oil prices averaged $52/b in 2015, down $forty seven/b from the typical in 2014, as progress in world liquids inventories put downward pressure on Brent costs all through much of the 12 months, EIA said.
EIA’s forecast for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices average $2/b lower than Brent in 2016 and $3/b lower in 2017.
The group did say nevertheless, that the present values of futures and choices contracts continue to recommend excessive uncertainty in the value outlook.
“For instance, EIA’s forecast for the average WTI price in April 2016 of $37/b must be considered within the context of latest contract values for April 2016 delivery (Market Costs and Uncertainty Report) suggesting that the market expects WTI prices to vary from $25/b to $56/b (on the 95% confidence interval),EIA said.
Output-smart, U.S. crude oil manufacturing averaged an estimated 9.Four million barrels per day (b/d) in 2015, and it is forecast to common eight.7 million b/d in 2016 and eight.5 million b/d in industry 2017. EIA estimates that crude oil manufacturing in December fell eighty,000 b/d from the November level.
Pure fuel working inventories had been three,643 billion cubic ft (Bcf) on January 1, which was 17% greater than during the identical week final 12 months and 15% larger than the earlier five-year common (2011-15) for that week. EIA forecasts that inventories will end the winter heating season (March 31) at 2,043 Bcf, which can be 38% above the level at the identical time last 12 months. Forecast Henry
Hub spot prices common $2.65/million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2016 and $3.22/MMBtu in 2017, in contrast with an average of $2.63/MMBtu in 2015.
A decline in energy technology from fossil fuels in the forecast period is offset by a rise from renewable sources. The share of era from natural gas falls from 33% in 2015 to 31% in 2017, and coal falls from 34% to 33%.