This Week In Petroleum
Financial statements from the third quarter of 2017 for 47 U.S. oil production corporations point out that they hedged greater than 1.2 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil at a weighted average worth of $forty nine.Sixty three per barrel (b), locking in a few of their revenues at a fixed worth even when oil costs decline lower than $50/b. Since the tip of the third quarter, weekly knowledge from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Fee (CFTC) by December 12, 2017, suggest that producers seemingly increased their hedged volumes during the fourth quarter of 2017. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil costs reached their highest ranges in more than two years in November and December, allowing many producers to hedge their future manufacturing at more than $50/b.
Combined liquids production from these 47 companies averaged 5.Three million b/d within the third quarter of 2017, with nearly 80% coming from the United States. Most of the businesses disclosed the volumes of oil they have financially hedged for 2018, collectively totaling greater than 1.2 million b/d, or 23% of their total third-quarter 2017 liquids production and 12% of forecasted U.S. crude oil manufacturing in 2018, based on EIA’s December Short-Term Power Outlook (Determine 1). Hedging activity varies by producer. Some corporations don’t hedge in any respect, whereas others hedge almost all of their anticipated 2018 production.
Hedging mitigates price risk and happens by way of various mechanisms. Widespread practices include selling futures or swaps, which allows the holder to lock in a future worth for a commodity in the present day. Many firms also use options, which are contracts that give the holders the correct to purchase or promote a futures contract by a sure date at a sure worth.
Companies seemingly elevated their hedged volumes within the fourth quarter of 2017. A number one indicator of hedging activity is the weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report from the CFTC, which discloses futures and options positions in the category that features producers, merchants, processors, and users—commercial companies that commerce the physical commodity. One other category including swap sellers may characterize some oil producer hedging, because the category represents entities that hedge futures on behalf of oil firms.
Short positions—selling a futures contract, shopping for a put choice, or selling a call option—in WTI crude oil for these two trader classifications increased by greater than 113,000 contracts (9%) from the first week in October by way of December 12, 2017—the equal of virtually 114 million barrels. Consequently, brief positions within the swap dealers class reached an all-time high (Determine 2). Nevertheless, the COT report doesn’t specify whether these quick positions are for crude underground gasification of coal ppt oil for supply in 2018 or future years.
The rise in hedging over underground gasification of coal ppt the third and fourth quarters of 2017 could have contributed to increased backwardation (when near-term prices are greater than longer-dated prices) throughout the WTI futures curve (Figure 3). The difference compared with last year and last quarter between two consecutive futures contracts by the first forty eight WTI contracts averaged -6 cents/b and -three cents/b, respectively. The contango (when close to-term prices are lower than longer-dated prices) within the entrance a part of the WTI futures curve was likely the results of stock builds in Cushing, Oklahoma. Since the first week in October 2017, nonetheless, stocks in Cushing declined 10.8 million barrels, contributing to the latest backwardation in close to-month WTI contracts. Mixed with producer hedging that possible increased the selling stress on longer-dated contracts, the common difference between consecutive WTI futures contracts increased to 15 cents/b for the 5 buying and selling days ending December 19, 2017.
The third quarter of 2017 represented the fourth consecutive quarter of year-over-12 months growth in capital expenditures and cash from operations for these forty seven corporations (Figure 4). Elevated hedging will probably easy income volatility for this set of firms, and the uptrends in capital expenditures and money from operations for these corporations supports EIA’s forecast for U.S. crude oil manufacturing to achieve more than 10 million b/d by the center of 2018, averaging 0.Eight million b/d greater than 2017 ranges. Fourth-quarter 2017 financial statements for these firms, which is able to outline how way more production the businesses hedged compared with third-quarter 2017, might be released in February 2018. For comparable financial analysis of oil firms, see EIA’s just lately launched Quarterly Monetary Overview.
U.S. average common gasoline and diesel prices fall
The U.S. common common gasoline retail value fell four cents from the previous week to $2.Forty five per gallon on December 18, up 19 cents from the identical time final 12 months. The Gulf Coast value fell over 5 cents to $2.16 per gallon, the Midwest worth fell five cents to $2.32 per gallon, the Rocky Mountain value fell almost four cents to $2.Forty eight per gallon, the East Coast worth fell three cents to $2.44 per gallon, and the West Coast worth fell one cent to $2.96 per gallon.
The U.S. average diesel fuel value fell 1 cent to $2.Ninety per gallon on December 18, 37 cents greater than a 12 months in the past. The Rocky Mountain worth fell three cents to $2.96 per gallon, the West Coast value fell almost two cents to $three.33 per gallon, the Midwest and Gulf Coast prices every fell one cent to $2.85 per gallon and $2.70 per gallon, respectively, and the East Coast value fell less than one cent, remaining at $2.Ninety per gallon.
Propane inventories decline
U.S. propane stocks decreased by three.3 million barrels final week to 71.3 million barrels as of December 15, 2017, 7.1 million barrels (9.Zero%) decrease than the five-12 months common stock stage for this identical time of yr. Gulf Coast inventories decreased by 1.9 million barrels, Midwest and East Coast inventories every decreased by 0.7 million barrels, and Rocky Mountain/West Coast inventories decreased slightly, remaining nearly unchanged. Propylene non-fuel-use inventories represented 3.6% of total propane inventories.
Residential heating oil and propane prices increase, wholesale costs decrease
As of December 18, 2017, residential heating oil costs averaged $2.91 per gallon, nearly three cents per gallon more than final week and virtually 34 cents per gallon greater than last yr’s value at the moment. The typical wholesale heating oil price for this week averaged $2.00 per gallon, 2 cents per gallon lower than last week but 26 cents per gallon increased than a 12 months in the past.
Residential propane costs averaged $2.Forty nine per gallon, virtually 1 cent per gallon greater than last week and 30 cents per gallon greater than a 12 months ago. Wholesale propane costs averaged $1.04 per gallon, nearly 7 cents per gallon lower than last week however nearly 27 cents per gallon greater than last 12 months’s price.