YIN YANG ZONE

from the above table of official oil manufacturing data, we are able to see that OPEC oil output decreased by seventy nine,one hundred barrels per day in August, to 32,755,000 barrels per day, from a July oil production complete of 32,834,000 barrels per day, a determine that was originally reported as 32,869,000 barrels per day (for your reference, here is the desk of the official July OPEC output figures before this month’s revisions)…as we will see within the far proper column, the explanation that OPEC’s output fell 79,100 barrels per day was largely as a consequence of a 112,300 barrel per day decrease in output from Libya, because the 138,300 barrel per day enhance from Nigeria was offset by modest decreases in manufacturing by Gabon, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela…..these totals carry most OPEC members aside from Iraq near their agreed to manufacturing quota, as could be seen within the table beneath:

liquid chlorine storage tankthe above table is from the “OPEC information” page at S&P World Platts: the first column of numbers reveals common day by day manufacturing in tens of millions of barrels of oil per day for every of the OPEC members over the first eight months of this 12 months, and the 2nd column shows the allotted day by day production in hundreds of thousands of barrels of oil per day for each member, as was agreed to at their November assembly, and the 3rd column exhibits how much each has averaged over or beneath their quotas for the eight months of this 12 months that OPEC has curtailed manufacturing…as you possibly can see from the above, most OPEC members are pretty near assembly their commitment to slicing their manufacturing back four%, apart from Iraq, who has persistently overproduced by roughly 2%…

the following graphic we’ll embrace reveals us each OPEC and world oil production monthly on the identical graph, over the period from September 2015 to August 2017, and it comes from web page 68 of the September OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report….the light blue bars symbolize OPEC oil production in millions of barrels per day as proven on the left scale, whereas the purple graph represents international oil manufacturing in thousands and thousands of barrels per day, with the metrics for international output shown on the correct scale…

the preliminary OPEC information indicates that complete international oil manufacturing fell to 96.75 million barrels per day in August, down by .Forty one million barrels per day from a July total of ninety seven.Sixteen million barrels per day, which was revised .14 million barrels per day decrease than the 97.30 million barrels per day international oil output for July that was reported a month ago…international oil output for August was additionally 1.10 million barrels per day higher than the ninety five.Sixty five million barrels of oil per day that was being produced globally in August a yr ago (see last September’s OPEC report for the yr in the past data)…OPEC’s August production of 32,755,000 barrels per day thus represented 33.9% of what was produced globally, a small increase from the revised 33.8% OPEC share in June…OPEC’s August 2016 production, excluding ex-member Indonesia, was at 32,512,000 barrels per day, so even after the alleged manufacturing cuts, the 13 OPEC members who were a part of OPEC last 12 months, excluding new member Equatorial Guinea, are nonetheless producing more oil than they were producing a yr in the past, after they have been supposedly producing flat out…

after eight months of comparatively lower manufacturing we are able to see on the above graph, there was finally a small deficit in the quantity of oil being produced globally, as the subsequent table from the OPEC report will present us..

the table above comes from page 37 of the September OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, and it exhibits regional and complete oil demand in millions of barrels per day for 2016 in the primary column, and OPEC’s forecast for oil demand by area and globally over 2017 over the remainder of the desk…on the “Total world” line of the fourth column, we’ve circled in blue the figure we’re fascinated with, which is their estimate for global oil demand for the third quarter of 2017…

OPEC’s estimate is that through the 3rd quarter of this yr, all oil consuming areas of the globe will use be using ninety seven.57 million barrels of oil per day, which is an upward revision from their prior estimate of ninety seven.28 million barrels of oil per day…word that they’ve additionally revised world oil demand for the second quarter four hundred,000 barrels per day higher, to 96.05 barrels per day, and revised demand for the first quarter one hundred fifty,000 barrels per day higher, to ninety five.Fifty four barrels per day, at the same time…in the meantime, as OPEC showed us in the oil provide part of this report and the summary provide graph above, after the OPEC and non-OPEC production cuts, the world’s oil producers were only producing 96.75 million barrels per day throughout August, which implies that during this summer time month of best demand, there was a shortfall of around 820,000 barrels per day of world oil manufacturing in August…additionally observe that world manufacturing for July was concurrently revised decrease, to ninety seven.Sixteen million barrels per day, so that means there was additionally a deficit of 410,000 barrels per day in July output, which we had beforehand figured to be a worldwide oil surplus of round 20,000 barrels per day…as well as, the 400,000 barrels per day upward revision to second quarter demand reduces the June surplus to 1,080,000 barrels per day, and turns what we had beforehand figured to be a 270,000 barrels per day surplus in Could right into a 130,000 barrel per day deficit….April’s revised figures now present a 440,000 barrel per day deficit, and previous to that the worldwide oil surplus throughout March could be revised to 630,000 barrels per day, and average surpluses over January and February can be decreased to round 850,000 barrels per day….taken together, this data means that after eight months of OPEC production cuts, roughly 48 million barrels of oil have been added to the global oil glut since the 1st of the year, fairly a bit lower than the 135 million barrel addition last month’s report indicated..

the above graph, taken from the “OPEC August Crude Oil Manufacturing” post on the Peak Oil Barrel blog, reveals total oil production, in hundreds of barrels per day, for the 13 members of OPEC, for the period from January 2005 to August 2017, utilizing the same official information from multiple secondary sources as we noticed in the first table above…right here we will obviously see that OPEC’s manufacturing for June, July and August is up fairly a bit from their previous production this 12 months and is even approaching the record of 33,374,000 million barrels per day the cartel produced in November, a stage achieved because they throughout produced so that their cuts could be off the next base…so even as they’ve reduce their oil manufacturing from that degree, their output for each of the eight months of this 12 months was truly increased than in every of the identical months months a 12 months in the past, leaving OPEC properly on monitor to exceed their 2016 manufacturing this 12 months, whilst they attempt to orchestrate the oil markets with reviews of their “diminished” production…

this week’s US oil information from the US Energy Info Administration, covering details for the week ending September 8th, continued to point out the impact of Hurricane Harvey on oil supplies and consumption as it transversed Texas and the adjoining Gulf of Mexico the prior week; it indicates a further drop in oil imports, as ship channels in the affected ports remained silted, but a rebound in oil exports, as the first US oil export services at Corpus Christi have been reopened, a restoration in oil manufacturing, as output from the Eagle Ford shale and the Gulf came again online, and a small drop in per diem oil refining, as the main refinery shutdowns impacted both this week and the final half of the prior one…

our imports of crude oil fell by a median of 603,000 barrels per day to a median of 6,480,000 barrels per day through the week, whereas at the same time our exports of crude oil rose by 621,000 barrels per day to an average of 774,000 barrels per day, which meant that our efficient imports netted out to a median of 5,706,000 barrels per day throughout the week, 1,224,000 barrels per day less than throughout the prior week…at the same time, our discipline production of crude oil rose by 572,000 barrels per day to an average of 9,353,000 barrels per day, which means that our each day supply of oil coming from net imports and from wells totaled an average of 15,059,000 barrels per day through the cited week…

during the same interval, US oil refineries were utilizing 14,078,000 barrels of crude per day, 394,000 barrels per day lower than they used in the course of the prior week, whereas at the same time 614,000 barrels of oil per day had been being added to oil storage amenities in the US…hence, this week’s crude oil figures from the EIA appear to indicate that our total supply of oil from web imports and from oilfield manufacturing was 367,000 extra barrels per day than what refineries reported they used through the week plus what was added to storage…to account for that discrepancy, the EIA wanted to insert a (-367,000) barrel per day determine onto line 13 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet to make the data for the supply of oil and the consumption of it balance out, which they label of their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”…